Oh, the people!
Before the 20th century, no human had lived through a doubling of the human population, but there are people alive today who have seen it triple. Not only are people living longer, but so many across the world are now in their childbearing years- 1.8 billion-that the global population will keep growing for another few decades at least, even though each woman is having fewer children than she would have had a generation ago. By 2050 the total number could reach 10.5 billion, or it could stop at eight billion- the difference is about one child per woman.
With the population still growing by about 80 million each year, it’s hard not to be alarmed. Right now on Earth, water tables are falling, soil is eroding, glaciers are melting, and fish stocks are vanishing. Close to a billion people go hungry each day. Decades from now, there will likely be two billion more mouths to feed, mostly in poor countries. There will be billions more people wanting and deserving to boost themselves out of poverty. If third-world countries follow the path blazed by wealthy countries- clearing forests, burning coal and oil, freely scattering fertilizers and pesticides- they too will be stepping hard on the planet’s natural resources. How exactly is this going to work?
The world population hasn’t fallen, historians believe, since the Black Death of the 14th century. In India life expectancy went from 38 years in 1952 to 64 today; in China, from 41 to 73. Millions of people in developing countries who would have died in childhood survived to have children themselves. Though, when child mortality declines, couples eventually have fewer children- but that transition takes a generation. The "demographic dividend" is very confusing.
By Robert Kunzig(N.G./January 2011)
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